First restart · Laps 34–38
Verstappen did not immediately dominate
- Shared laps
- 5
- Ocon’s average advantage
- ~0.52 s/lap
Ocon was faster across this short phase, so the first red flag did not immediately translate into superior Verstappen pace.
F1 STRATEGY ANALYSIS · CASE 02 · BRAZIL 2024
Brazil 2024: Recovery, Strategy and Conversion
Max Verstappen won the 2024 São Paulo Grand Prix after starting P17 in difficult wet conditions. This study separates the contribution of his opening recovery, the Lap 28 pit decisions, the subsequent red flag and his pace after the final restart.
Independent analysis using publicly available data. Not affiliated with Formula 1 or any Formula 1 team.
- Wet-weather strategy
- Position reconstruction
- Red-flag scenario
- Post-restart pace
Executive summary
The result in four measures
Verstappen created most of the recovery on track, gained race-winning position during the Lap 28 pit split, then converted that opportunity with the strongest pace after the final restart.
- On-track recovery before the VSC
- P17 → P5Twelve positions gained before the central strategic sequence.
- Gain when leading rivals stopped
- +3 positionsThe Lap 28 pit split moved Verstappen from P5 to P2.
- Observed same-window Lap 28 stop estimate
- ~26 secondsA scenario input, not a certain cost for every alternative strategy.
- Final-stint advantage over comparison drivers
- 0.70–0.97 s/lapMean advantage across 26 shared clean laps.
Race reconstruction
The Recovery Was Already Underway
Verstappen gained six positions on the opening lap, moving from P17 to P11. He then gained another six positions through the wet-weather opening phase, reaching P5 before the Virtual Safety Car on Lap 28. Twelve of his sixteen total positions had therefore been gained before the central strategic sequence.
- Lap 1P17 to P11
- Before Lap 28P11 to P5
- Lap 28Virtual Safety Car
- Lap 30Safety Car
- Lap 32Red flag
- Lap 39Second Safety Car
Position-gain decomposition
Where the Sixteen Positions Came From
Breaking the recovery into strategic phases separates the positions Verstappen won on track from those created by the pit split and the position he gained after the final restart.
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+6 positions
Opening lap: P17 to P11.
-
+6 positions
Pre-VSC progress: P11 to P5.
-
+3 positions
Lap 28 pit decisions: P5 to P2.
-
0 positions
Safety Car and red flag: P2 remained P2.
-
+1 position
Post-restart phase: P2 to P1.
Red-flag counterfactual
What If the Stay-Out Drivers Had Pitted on Lap 28?
The scenario uses the observed Norris and Russell pit window to estimate where Ocon, Verstappen and Gasly might have rejoined if they had also stopped at that moment.
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Observe the pit window
Norris and Russell stopped during the Lap 28 window.
-
Estimate the loss
Their effective loss to non-stopping reference drivers was approximately 26 seconds.
-
Apply the scenario
The observed loss was applied to Ocon, Verstappen and Gasly.
-
Compare restart order
Projected positions were compared with the actual first-restart order.
- Esteban Ocon
- Actual P1 → modelled P4
- Max Verstappen
- Actual P2 → modelled P7
- Pierre Gasly
- Actual P3 → modelled P8
Post-restart pace
Strategy Created the Opportunity — Pace Converted It
The two green-flag phases tell different stories. Ocon was quicker immediately after the red flag, while Verstappen established the decisive advantage only after the second restart.
Final green-flag phase · Laps 44–69
The race-winning pace emerged
- Shared clean laps
- 26
- Verstappen median lap time
- 81.934 seconds
Across the final shared comparison window, every selected rival accumulated substantial time loss to Verstappen.
Final-stint comparison
Ocon
- Mean loss
- +0.697 s/lap
- Cumulative loss
- +18.1 seconds
Russell
- Mean loss
- +0.718 s/lap
- Cumulative loss
- +18.7 seconds
Gasly
- Mean loss
- +0.775 s/lap
- Cumulative loss
- +20.1 seconds
Norris
- Mean loss
- +0.968 s/lap
- Cumulative loss
- +25.2 seconds
Verdict
Verstappen’s victory came from three distinct contributions
-
On-track recovery
He moved from P17 to P5 before the VSC, gaining twelve positions without relying on the decisive strategic sequence.
-
Strategic positioning
The Lap 28 stops ahead moved Verstappen from P5 to P2. The red flag then let the stay-out group replace its tyres without surrendering that position through a conventional stop.
-
Race conversion
After the second restart, Verstappen was approximately 0.70 to 0.97 seconds per lap faster than the comparison drivers and turned the strategic opportunity into a decisive victory.
The red flag was materially beneficial, but it neither created Verstappen’s opening recovery nor directly moved him from P5 to P2. Strategy placed him in a race-winning position; his final-stint pace completed the win.
Transparency
Methodology and limitations
Data source
Public OpenF1 data for the 2024 São Paulo Grand Prix, including:
- Lap timing and driver positions
- Tyre stints and pit stops
- Race-control messages
- Session results
Methods
- Lap-by-lap position reconstruction
- Strategic checkpoint comparison
- Position-gain decomposition
- Same-window pit-loss counterfactual
- Shared-lap post-restart pace comparison
Interpretive limits
- The counterfactual does not simulate every Safety Car, tyre, traffic or restart outcome.
- The modelled P7 assumes a Lap 28 stop comparable to Norris and Russell.
- A later stop under the Safety Car may have cost fewer positions.
- The cumulative pace chart resets drivers to zero and excludes actual starting gaps.
- Public timing data cannot fully represent team information, driver confidence, visibility or real-time forecasts.